Thursday Morning September 11th, 2025
Local Commentary Care of NWGG
Outside Markets:
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USD is lower
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Crude is lower
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Gold is lower
Market News:
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Wheat is higher
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Corn is unch
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Soybeans are higher
Daily Trivia: What structural feature symbolizes the Twin Towers at the September 11th Memorial in New York City?
In economics markets have put their focus on the latest US jobless claims data seeing it as support for a Fed rate cut next week. Initial claims for unemployment jumped by 27,000 to 263,000 for the week ending September 6, well above both the prior week’s 236,000 and the 234,000 average trade estimate. That increase lifted the four-week moving average to 240,500 from 230,750. Continuing claims for the week ending August 30 held steady at 1.939 million, while their four-week average edged down by 750 to 1.946 million. What grabbed attention, however, was the sharp rise in new claims, the highest since October 2021. Among former federal civilian employees, first-time claims for the week ending August 30 rose by 12 to 527, and continuing claims for the week ending August 23 increased by 83 to 8,211. Futures markets now price in roughly a 90 percent probability of three Fed rate cuts, one at each of the next three meetings before year-end. The August consumer price index (CPI) climbed 0.4% from July which is twice the prior month’s pace and above the 0.3% gain economists expected. Year-over-year, headline inflation reached 2.9%, exactly in line with forecasts but up from July’s 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, both matching expectations and steady with July’s trend.
Unfortunately, the weekly export-sales report was released this morning and offered significantly more lowlights than highlights:
Wheat: Net sales totaled 305,400 MT. Key destinations: Japan (79K), Indonesia (70K), Philippines (41K), Venezuela (34K), and Mexico (27K).
By class:
HRS 127,800 MT (70K Indonesia, 31K Japan, 21K Philippines)
HRW 92,300 MT (34K Venezuela, 27K Japan, 23K Mexico)
White 45,200 MT (21K Japan, 20K Philippines)
SRW 22,500 MT (12K Peru)
Durum 17,500 MT (all to Italy)
Corn: Net sales came in at 539,900 MT, plus 1,169,700 MT carried over from 24/25. Main customers were Mexico (257K), Japan (144K), Unknown (96K), and Vietnam (75K). Spain canceled 50K and Portugal 30K.
Soybeans: Net sales reached 541,100 MT, with an additional 767,000 MT rolled over from the 2024/25 marketing year that ended August 31. Top buyers were Unknown (432K), Taiwan (62K), and Indonesia (33K), while Mexico canceled 19K.
Internationally, Russia’s IKAR now pegs 2025 wheat production at 87 MMT, up from 86 MMT, and lifted its export forecast to 44 MMT from 43 MMT. Total grain output was also revised higher, from 132.8 MMT to 135.0 MMT. SovEcon likewise boosted its 2025 wheat outlook to 87.2 MMT from 86.1 MMT, while increasing overall grain production expectations from 130.5 MMT to 134.9 MMT. Meanwhile, The Rosario Grains Exchange said Argentina could produce a record corn crop in 2025/26 as growers move acreage away from soybeans and other crops. They project output at 61 MMT assuming typical rainfall, which would surpass the previous all-time high of 52.5 MMT set in 2023/24.
Probably not my place to comment on news headlines that don't directly impact grain markets and the economy, at least not on this platform, but sometimes it's hard not to. I was only six years old on September 11th but I will never forget that day and those who lost their lives and the heroes who made sacrifices for this country. That being said, I will also never forget yesterday. Pray for those who lost loved ones 24 years ago. Pray for those who lost loved ones yesterday. Pray for those with hate in their heart. Have a good Thursday everybody and give your families a hug. God bless.
Trivia Answer: Two large reflecting pools set in the original footprints of the towers.
- Riley Kretschmer